Circumpolar analysis of the Adélie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch.
Identifieur interne : 001001 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001000; suivant : 001002Circumpolar analysis of the Adélie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch.
Auteurs : Casey Youngflesh [États-Unis] ; Stephanie Jenouvrier [États-Unis] ; Yun Li [États-Unis] ; Rubao Ji [États-Unis] ; David G. Ainley [États-Unis] ; Grant Ballard [États-Unis] ; Christophe Barbraud [France] ; Karine Delord [France] ; Katie M. Dugger [États-Unis] ; Louise M. Emmerson [Australie] ; William R. Fraser [États-Unis] ; Jefferson T. Hinke [États-Unis] ; Phil O'B Lyver [Nouvelle-Zélande] ; Silvia Olmastroni [Italie] ; Colin J. Southwell [Australie] ; Susan G. Trivelpiece [États-Unis] ; Wayne Z. Trivelpiece [États-Unis] ; Heather J. Lynch [États-Unis]Source :
- Ecology [ 0012-9658 ] ; 2017.
Abstract
Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology are apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system.
DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1749
PubMed: 28129431
Affiliations:
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Ainley</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>HT Harvey and Associates, Los Gatos, California, 95032, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>HT Harvey and Associates, Los Gatos, California, 95032</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>95032</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ballard, Grant" sort="Ballard, Grant" uniqKey="Ballard G" first="Grant" last="Ballard">Grant Ballard</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Point Blue Conservation Science, Petaluma, California, 94954, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Point Blue Conservation Science, Petaluma, California, 94954</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>94954</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Barbraud, Christophe" sort="Barbraud, Christophe" uniqKey="Barbraud C" first="Christophe" last="Barbraud">Christophe Barbraud</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Universite La Rochelle, Villiers en Bois, FR-79360, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Universite La Rochelle, Villiers en Bois, FR-79360</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>79360</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>79360</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Delord, Karine" sort="Delord, Karine" uniqKey="Delord K" first="Karine" last="Delord">Karine Delord</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Universite La Rochelle, Villiers en Bois, FR-79360, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, UMR 7372 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique/Universite La Rochelle, Villiers en Bois, FR-79360</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>79360</wicri:noRegion><wicri:noRegion>79360</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Dugger, Katie M" sort="Dugger, Katie M" uniqKey="Dugger K" first="Katie M" last="Dugger">Katie M. Dugger</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>US Geological Survey, Oregon Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, 97331, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>US Geological Survey, Oregon Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, 97331</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>97331</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Emmerson, Louise M" sort="Emmerson, Louise M" uniqKey="Emmerson L" first="Louise M" last="Emmerson">Louise M. Emmerson</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of the Environment, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, 7050, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of the Environment, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, 7050</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>7050</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Fraser, William R" sort="Fraser, William R" uniqKey="Fraser W" first="William R" last="Fraser">William R. Fraser</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Polar Oceans Research Group, Sheridan, Montana, 59749, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Polar Oceans Research Group, Sheridan, Montana, 59749</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>59749</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hinke, Jefferson T" sort="Hinke, Jefferson T" uniqKey="Hinke J" first="Jefferson T" last="Hinke">Jefferson T. Hinke</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Jolla, California, 92037, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Jolla, California, 92037</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>92037</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lyver, Phil O B" sort="Lyver, Phil O B" uniqKey="Lyver P" first="Phil O'B" last="Lyver">Phil O'B Lyver</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Landcare Research, Lincoln, 7640, New Zealand.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Nouvelle-Zélande</country><wicri:regionArea>Landcare Research, Lincoln, 7640</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>7640</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Olmastroni, Silvia" sort="Olmastroni, Silvia" uniqKey="Olmastroni S" first="Silvia" last="Olmastroni">Silvia Olmastroni</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell'Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Siena, Siena, 53100, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Dipartimento di Scienze Fisiche, della Terra e dell'Ambiente, Università degli Studi di Siena, Siena, 53100</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>53100</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Southwell, Colin J" sort="Southwell, Colin J" uniqKey="Southwell C" first="Colin J" last="Southwell">Colin J. Southwell</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of the Environment, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, 7050, Australia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of the Environment, Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Tasmania, 7050</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>7050</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Trivelpiece, Susan G" sort="Trivelpiece, Susan G" uniqKey="Trivelpiece S" first="Susan G" last="Trivelpiece">Susan G. Trivelpiece</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Jolla, California, 92037, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Jolla, California, 92037</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>92037</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Trivelpiece, Wayne Z" sort="Trivelpiece, Wayne Z" uniqKey="Trivelpiece W" first="Wayne Z" last="Trivelpiece">Wayne Z. Trivelpiece</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Jolla, California, 92037, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Jolla, California, 92037</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>92037</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lynch, Heather J" sort="Lynch, Heather J" uniqKey="Lynch H" first="Heather J" last="Lynch">Heather J. Lynch</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, 11790, USA.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, 11790</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>11790</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Ecology</title><idno type="ISSN">0012-9658</idno><imprint><date when="2017" type="published">2017</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology are apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Australie</li><li>France</li><li>Italie</li><li>Nouvelle-Zélande</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Floride</li></region><settlement><li>Tampa</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Floride du Sud</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><noRegion><name sortKey="Youngflesh, Casey" sort="Youngflesh, Casey" uniqKey="Youngflesh C" first="Casey" last="Youngflesh">Casey Youngflesh</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Ainley, David G" sort="Ainley, David G" uniqKey="Ainley D" first="David G" last="Ainley">David G. Ainley</name><name sortKey="Ballard, Grant" sort="Ballard, Grant" uniqKey="Ballard G" first="Grant" last="Ballard">Grant Ballard</name><name sortKey="Dugger, Katie M" sort="Dugger, Katie M" uniqKey="Dugger K" first="Katie M" last="Dugger">Katie M. Dugger</name><name sortKey="Fraser, William R" sort="Fraser, William R" uniqKey="Fraser W" first="William R" last="Fraser">William R. Fraser</name><name sortKey="Hinke, Jefferson T" sort="Hinke, Jefferson T" uniqKey="Hinke J" first="Jefferson T" last="Hinke">Jefferson T. Hinke</name><name sortKey="Jenouvrier, Stephanie" sort="Jenouvrier, Stephanie" uniqKey="Jenouvrier S" first="Stephanie" last="Jenouvrier">Stephanie Jenouvrier</name><name sortKey="Ji, Rubao" sort="Ji, Rubao" uniqKey="Ji R" first="Rubao" last="Ji">Rubao Ji</name><name sortKey="Li, Yun" sort="Li, Yun" uniqKey="Li Y" first="Yun" last="Li">Yun Li</name><name sortKey="Lynch, Heather J" sort="Lynch, Heather J" uniqKey="Lynch H" first="Heather J" last="Lynch">Heather J. Lynch</name><name sortKey="Trivelpiece, Susan G" sort="Trivelpiece, Susan G" uniqKey="Trivelpiece S" first="Susan G" last="Trivelpiece">Susan G. Trivelpiece</name><name sortKey="Trivelpiece, Wayne Z" sort="Trivelpiece, Wayne Z" uniqKey="Trivelpiece W" first="Wayne Z" last="Trivelpiece">Wayne Z. Trivelpiece</name></country><country name="France"><noRegion><name sortKey="Barbraud, Christophe" sort="Barbraud, Christophe" uniqKey="Barbraud C" first="Christophe" last="Barbraud">Christophe Barbraud</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Delord, Karine" sort="Delord, Karine" uniqKey="Delord K" first="Karine" last="Delord">Karine Delord</name></country><country name="Australie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Emmerson, Louise M" sort="Emmerson, Louise M" uniqKey="Emmerson L" first="Louise M" last="Emmerson">Louise M. Emmerson</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Southwell, Colin J" sort="Southwell, Colin J" uniqKey="Southwell C" first="Colin J" last="Southwell">Colin J. Southwell</name></country><country name="Nouvelle-Zélande"><noRegion><name sortKey="Lyver, Phil O B" sort="Lyver, Phil O B" uniqKey="Lyver P" first="Phil O'B" last="Lyver">Phil O'B Lyver</name></noRegion></country><country name="Italie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Olmastroni, Silvia" sort="Olmastroni, Silvia" uniqKey="Olmastroni S" first="Silvia" last="Olmastroni">Silvia Olmastroni</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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